Monday, July 01, 2002

Well what news? Tennispicks.com is haemorrahging big time. Onthepunt is doing quite well. Landed 50/1 shot Soren Hansen in Murphy's Irish Open. However, I'm pissed off it was proofed at 66/1 so it actually cost me a couple of hundred. Ironic that a win can cost a few hundred? Yes it is...anyway question du jour should I stick with tennispicks.com? Sadly enough I was wrestling with that question as I went to bed. In the end I think I will stick with tennispicks.com

Perhaps the main reason is that so many of the matches are proofed at absolutelty shitty prices from Interwetten.com. That book returns only 85% whereas a decent sportsbook will return 95% or so. Anyway he's having a really shitty wimbledon I've dropped around 86 units with him so far. I'll stick with him until his profits go to -100 then I'll bail. Hopefully it won't get to that the site has a fairly no bullshit feel about it very detailed statistics on past performance. They screwed me around once by adding a late multi maximum bet which won. But for now I'm happy to stick with them.

Tuesday, June 25, 2002

One other thing I made a promise to myself to NEVER AGAIN bet on a tip unless it was backed by a tipster with a profitable record. This was after I backed Coutelot to beat Ferrero after I had a hot tip that Ferrero was injured and had to go to hospital. Well guess what? I fucked up. The COACH of Spadea said that he didn't think Spadea could beat Larsson at Wimbledon. This wasn't on the media but on a private punting forum. Well, Spadea won. Damnit let that be a lesson to me.

Made a truckload of bets today. Eight from tennispicks.com and five form onthepunt. Only one bet I didn't take that was Bjorkmann to beat Hewitt. I already have a "free" outright from Sportingodds.com on Bjorkmann so I can hedge him later if he does the unthinkable and actually wins. My policy is low volume betting so I sit here now asking why did I make so many bets? Saw a great gambling movie last night the main character asks "Why bet unless you're sure you are going to win?"

So am I sure that I'm going to win? A lot of the bets are accumulators on short priced favourites. I like those. A lot. Some of the other bets are on slight dogs. My reasoning is I'll take them all and cancel them later if I need to. Godwin fairly comfortable. Labadze fairly comfortable although may end up cancelling this one. Not too sure about Sluiter at the moment I like his write up, Robredo not too strong but may end up cancelling this one as well. Also took a bet on Germany because the refereeing should be a lot better tonight. Am I 100% confident? I have to say no...although I was 100% confident on Spain and Italy and look where that got me!!

Good profits today. Onthepunt was firing +15 units. Unfortunately, actual profit was only +10 units or so. Reason? New tipster found www.tennispicks.com. Unfortunately some of his picks clashed with www.sportsbettingindex.com. So I didn't take one of tennispick's (winning) multis. From now on will have to abandon www.sportsbettingindex.com. Why?

(a) A lot of the profits are made from "1 minute" prices that don't last very long at all
(b) Don't have access to a lot of bookmakers

I really like the look of tennispicks.com because they're making profits with terrible prices from interwetten.